O PRESENTE artigo resume parte dos resultados de um amplo projeto sobre o Brasil ante cenários internacionais possíveis. Adotando a postura prospectiva que informou todo esse projeto, o artigo indica algumas das linhas de força que deverão estabelecer o elo entre o sistema internacional presente e o que haverá no futuro, em um horizonte de vinte anos, destacando entre outros o papel dos EUA, da Europa e da China nesse processo. Quatro cenários são utilizados como base para a análise do caso brasileiro: Desconcentração conflituosa, Multipolaridade benigna, Unipolar consolidado e Ordem liberal cosmopolita. Considera-se aqui o Brasil como um país intermediário, afastado das áreas críticas de tensão internacional, e que, portanto, dispõe de certa margem de manobra e razoável condição para definir suas estratégias internacionais.

THIS article presents part of the results of a broad research about Brazil and international scenarios. Assuming the same prospective view of the research project, this article indicates a few current driving forces that will contribute to define international order in the future, in a 20 years perspective. The roles of the USA, Europe and China are highlighted in this analysis. Four scenarios are used as parameters for the analysis of the Brazilian case: conflictive deconcentration, benign multipolarity; consolidated unipolarity and cosmopolitan liberal order. We consider Brazil as an Intermediate State out of the critical areas of international conflict. We also consider that Brazil has certain margin for maneuver and reasonable amount of capacity to define its international strategies.

This article analyses the recent evolution of Brazilian Foreign Policy, mainly its security aspects. The security issues were repositioned within the Brazil’s international agenda and have acquired new format during the 1990’s, particularly related to the Brazil’s strategy to build its South American leadership. Both, the September 11th attacks and Luis Inácio Lula Da Silva election in 2002, have strengthened the previous tendencies, and haven’t produced significant changes. Two factors are crucial to this process: a) MERCOSUR impact on the regional geopolitical accommodation and b) the recent Brazil’s policies toward Amazon region increasing its presence and political actions.